Evening update + forecast for the week ahead
TONIGHT
Patchy rain and drizzle at times along with low cloud and hill fog, especially in the south and west. Later in the night we will see an area of heavier, more persistent rain moving in from the west. Temperature 11-12°C but dropping to 5-7°C around dawn Wind south 25-42mph becoming 29-50mph but turning west 28-28mph by dawn
Rainfall 3-5mm (44.4mm fallen at our Lake station since midnight)
TOMORROW
A wet start to the day but the rain will soon clear and the cloud will begin to break up to give a few sunny spells, but still with the risk of the odd shower. Temperature 6-7°C Wind west 29-50mph becoming 15-25mph later
Rainfall 2-4mm
TUESDAY
A cold feeling day with sunny spells and broken cloud with just the outside chance of a wintry shower, Temperature 4-6°C Wind fresh west becoming strong for a time
WEDNESDAY
A cold day with high levels of uncertainty. It certainly looks like being a cloudy day throughout and also a rather windy day too. We are still looking at 3 possible scenarios and the weather models still haven't trended in any set direction.
Scenario 1 (45%) has an area of low pressure run across central France, leaving the island in a cold, cloudy but mostly dry situation with perhaps the odd light wintry flurry.
Scenario 2 (35%)sees the low pressure area move through the English channel or northern France, allowing some heavier sleet and snow to move up across the island with several centimeters accumulating away from windward coasts.
Scenario 3 (20%) puts the low pressure further north, leaving the island with slightly milder air and snow that turns to rain. Temperature 1-4°C (uncertain) Wind fresh east-northeast
THURSDAY
A dry, bright but cold day after a sharp frost. Temperature 2-3°C Wind moderate northwest then west later
FRIDAY
Looking like a much cloudier day with some patchy rain or sleet moving in from the west, although again with considerable uncertainty. Temperature 2-4°C Wind light to moderate east becoming southeast later
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