Our Christmas forecast runs for 4 weeks every year, starting on November 27th.
How is the forecast worked out? Well, it is important to understand that this forecast is just a bit of fun, but also with a bit of science thrown in there too! The forecast is created by using 3 different computer models along with two other main factors which is the MJO (The Madden–Julian Oscillation) and also the Stratospheric temperature and wind forecast.
All of this data combined can give a reasonable forecast for up to a month in advance, and whilst it cannot predict individual weather events, it can help by picking up weather "trends", or in other words, if the weather is likely to be settled/unsettled, mild/cold etc.
The latest Christmas weather forecast:
Our latest Christmas 2024 forecast hasn't changed much at all since our first update back in November.
Things are still looking mild, thats for certain! The airstream will have moved across the UK from the Azores, so as well as being mild it is also likely to be rather humid, but that also means the risk of further cloudy, murky conditions.
We are of course keeping a close eye on things, but if we are in luck, the high pressure will shift ever so slightly further north than the current projections, bringing in somewhat drier air and in turn more in the way of sunshine!
Temperatures are expected to be in double digits with 10-12°C at ground level, despite some exceptionally mild air drifting above our heads at a few thousand feet up, but the stable, sinking air of the high pressure area will create an inversion (layer) which will prevent the air from above mixing with the air at ground level, and in turn slightly cooling the air here as the the sunshine provides very little warmth at this time of year.
Our next update will be on Dec 20th.
